Raporo ariko ishimangira ko iyi ari projection/model, atari ukuvuga ko aba bagore bose bazabaho batabyaye.

Ikibazo ntabwo ari Ireland gusa. Mu bihugu byinshi, cyane cyane ibihugu bifite ubukungu bwateye imbere, abantu baragenda batinda gushaka, gutinda gutangira kubyara, kwibanda ku mashuri n’akazi, guhura n’ikiguzi gikomeye cy’amazu n’ubuzima, kandi bamwe bagahitamo kutabyara.

Raporo ya Ireland ivuga kandi ko hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati yo guhitamo kutabyara no kutabyara umuntu yarabyifuzaga, urugero kubera gutinda gutangira umuryango cyangwa ibibazo by’uburumbuke. Ni yo mpamvu umubare w’abatagira abana utagomba guhita usobanurwa ngo bose babihisemo.

Ku isi ikibazo cy’imyororokere kiragaragara

Igipimo cy’abana umugore ateganyijwe kubyara mu buzima (Total Fertility Rate) cyaragabanutse mu bihugu byinshi. Iyo kiri munsi ya 2.1, igihugu kiba kiri munsi y’urwego rusanzwe rwo gusimbuza abaturage, hatabariwemo ibindi bintu nka migration cyangwa kwimuka.

Ni yo mpamvu ibihugu byinshi ubu bihangayikishijwe n’uko abaturage bashobora gusaza, hakaba abantu bake bari mu kazi ugereranyije n’abageze mu zabukuru.

U Rwanda rwo ruhagaze he?

U Rwanda ntiruragera ku rwego rwa Ireland mu bijyanye n’uburumbuke.

Imibare ya World Bank igaragaza ko mu 2024, u Rwanda rwari rufite fertility rate cyangwa ikigereranyo cyo ku byara, ya 3.6 abana ku mugore, mu gihe Ireland iri hafi cyane munsi y’urwego rwo gusimbuza abaturage.

Kandi imibare mishya ya NISR igaragaza ko mu Rwanda igipimo cy’uburumbuke cyakomeje kugabanuka: cyavuye kuri 6.1 mu 2005 kigera kuri 3.7 mu 2025. Mu mijyi ni 3.4, mu cyaro 3.9, naho Kigali ni 3.1.

Binyuze muri Rwanda Stats Institute, NISR ivuga ko mu mibare y’ingenzi ya 2025, Total Fertility Rate yabazwe muri Vital Statistics yari 3.5, ivuye kuri 3.6 mu 2024.

Ibi bivuze ko u Rwanda na rwo ruri mu rugendo rwo kugabanya umubare w’abana umugore abyara, nubwo rukiri kure y’ibihugu bifite fertility iri munsi ya 2.1.

Gushaka no gushinga umuryango na byo birahinduka

Imibare y’Ibarura Rusange ry’Abaturage n’Imiturire rya Rwanda 2022 yerekana ko imyaka abantu bashakiragaho bwa mbere na yo yazamutse. Mu 2022, impuzandengo y’imyaka umugore yashakiragaho bwa mbere yari 25.3, umugabo akaba 28.2.

U Rwanda rufite ikibazo gitandukanye n’icya Ireland ariko hari icyerekezo gihuriweho: uburumbuke buragabanuka.

Mu Rwanda, ikibazo ubu si uko abagore benshi batabyara burundu, ahubwo ni uko umubare w’abana umugore abyara uri kugabanuka, kandi imyaka yo gushaka no gutangira umuryango iri kuzamuka buhoro buhoro.

Iyi nzira ikomeje igihe kirekire, ishobora kuzagira ingaruka ku miterere y’abaturage, ku bakozi bazaba bahari mu gihe kizaza ndetse no ku mibereho y’abageze mu zabukuru.